Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update - Week 41
After a beautiful week for Bitcoin, a correction would be welcome to consolidate its rise towards a new ATH.
Summary
Previous Analysis
Fibonacci Levels
Weekly Close
Fear & Greed Index
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Weekly Plan
6.1 First scenario
6.2 Second scenarioOverall
1. Previous Analysis
In my last Bitcoin technical analysis, I told you about the potential support that BTC could find on the 0.5 fib. The plan worked out perfectly as after retesting this level at $46,850, Bitcoin ended up returning to the weekly open as support and then continued its run above $50,000 (and even reached $56,000).
2. Fibonacci Levels
After a clean and strong breakout of the 0.618 fib level, Bitcoin is consolidating below the next fib (0.786 at $57,170). There has not yet been a breakout attempt of this fib and there may not be one before a correction.
3. Weekly Close
I don't have much to say about this weekly close but I'll share the chart with you anyway because it is particularly beautiful. WE ARE BACK IN THE GAME.
4. Fear & Green Index
The Fear & Greed Index is still in “Greed”, that’s why I’m expecting a pullback in the coming days (in addition to the chart signs).
5. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
If you’re trading altcoins, the BTC.D might be your friend or your enemy. Past few days, the dominance increased and Bitcoin left altcoins behind.
On thi H4 chart, the BTC.D printed (this morning) a potential double top with bearish divergence (not confirmed yet), that’s mean we could see a bounce on alts but I’m still expecting bearish bias for this week, at least.
6. Weekly Plan
6.1. First scenario:
Bitcoin continue tp push higher and break the 0.786 fib
Once this fib is flipped as support, we can talk about $60,000
6.2. Second scenario:
The current bearish divergence plays out and Bitcoin go back below $55,000
Bearish retest on the EMA 21 (around $55,000) and more downside to $53,000
From $53,000, I expect further downside to $51,000 (0.618 fib) before a strong bounce back to $60,000
Note: The second scenario is the most probable imo. If you’re trading on leverage, be careful.
7. Overall,
Bitcoin had a beautiful week and has not really had a correction that would allow it to make a healthy and solid climb, which is why I expect a correction week where altcoins could suffer from a dominance in favor of the King.
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