Bitcoin Technical Analysis Update - Week 35
After three breakout attempts at $49,000, can Bitcoin try to breakout again or is a bigger correction needed?
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Summary
Previous Analysis
VPVR & POC
EMA 100 & EMA 200 (H4)
Weekly Close
Weekly Plan
5.1 First scenario
5.2 Second scenarioOverall
Previous Analysis
In my last Bitcoin technical analysis, I shared theses ideas for the previous week. As you know, Bitcoin failed to hold $48,600 and dropped near $46,000 (second yellow line on the chart above).
A downtrend channel formed in the following days but the bulls were able to break it to retest $49,000. Obviously, this level is a major resistance as it has been rejected three times. While I’m writing this newsletter, Bitcoin’s price is still above it, let’s see what we can expect for this week.
VPVR & POC
The current POC on H4 could not be more representative of the $49,000 resistance. Indeed, the red-dotted line (POC) shows clearly where is the key level for bulls and bears. Yesterday night, few hours before the weekly close, bulls tried to break it and close the weekly in green but bears kept control of this level and dump the price minutes before the weekly close before continuing this dump in the hours that followed.
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EMA 100 & EMA 200
In this technical analysis, I think it’s important to talk about the EMA 100 and EMA 200. As you can see on the chart above, EMA 100 on H4 is acting as (strong) support since $30,000 area!
Weekly Close
After five green weeks in a row, Bitcoin was not able to close the sixth in green despite the several attempts that took place during the week.
Even if this weekly candle is red, when you look at it, is not seems too bad. Indeed, this weekly candle printed an HL and HH so I won’t say Bitcoin will necessarily start a “big” correction toward $40,000 yet.
Weekly Plan
First scenario:
This channel retest hold well and Bitcoin bounce back straight to the POC
Retest $48,550 as support before flip the POC as support as well
Bitcoin pump to next Fibonacci fib, 0.618 at $51,100
Second scenario:
Bearish retest at $48,550
Go back to next support area (second yellow line) / EMA 100
Bounce from there with a new attempt at $48,550 and POC.
Overall,
this week is very important for bulls and bears. In my opinion, we should know by the end of this week what will be the next direction. If you’re trading on future, be careful and manage your leverage as we should see choppy days during the week.
Also, please, don’t forget to take your profit along the way, crypto market is a wild place and you know how big and fast movements can be.
Secure your profit is one of the most important things to do.
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